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11

My Vonnie

5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 41

Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who'd look well treated if recapturing last winter's course form. Still operating below her best when 9¼ lengths fifth here (10.5f) latest. The second/third have won since, though, and she does benefit from a handy draw this time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA45
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA53 @ Dundalk 14/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 136 · beat its mark14/11/2025 · OR 53 par14/1153OR 53BHA53 @ Dundalk 21/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 53 parBHA53 @ Dundalk 05/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 53 · 1m4f Std 135 · beat its mark05/12/2025 · OR 53 par5/1253OR 53BHA51 @ Dundalk 09/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 51 · 1m Std 133 · beat its mark09/01/2026 · OR 51 parBHA50 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 50 · 1m4f Std 120 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 50 par23/0150OR 50BHA49 @ Dundalk 20/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 49 · 1m2f150y Std 131 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 49 parBHA47 @ Dundalk 06/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 47 · 1m4f Std 129 · beat its mark06/03/2026 · OR 47 par6/0347OR 47BHA46 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 46 · 1m Std 128 · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 46 parBHA45 @ Dundalk 15/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 45 · 1m2f150y Std 131 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 45 par15/0845OR 45projClass-projected finish: 11th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15DundalkBHA455th5th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA4611th11th0
2026-03-06DundalkBHA4712th12th0
2026-02-20DundalkBHA496th6th0
2026-01-23DundalkBHA506th6th0
2026-01-09DundalkBHA516th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/119/016/0315/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 5-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength40%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/11/20254th3/184%75%-0.09
21/11/20255th6/168%69%+0.01
05/12/20257th18/15%54%+0.49
09/01/20266th7/282%62%-0.20
23/01/20266th9/153%55%+0.02
20/02/20266th12/137%62%+0.25
06/03/202612th12/137%15%-0.21
12/07/202611th16/116%23%+0.07
15/08/20265th16/116%69%+0.53