2
Vervain
4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 55
Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.6)
Highest class: BHA53
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA55 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Tramore | BHA56 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gowran Park | BHA53 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Killarney | BHA53 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA53 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Curragh | BHA56 | 18th | 18th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1769% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/08/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.30 |
| 06/09/2025 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 28% | +0.01 |
| 21/10/2025 | 18th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 73% | +0.36 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 64% | -0.05 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |