10
Zitkala Sa
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 50
Dundalk · Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60) · 1m 4f
#14
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: BHA54
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Clonmel | BHA54 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Down Royal | BHA56 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Gowran Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Gowran Park | BHA60 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Leopardstown | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1738% of fieldRange 5-17 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength25%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 17.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/05/2026 | 10th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/09/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 16/09/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |