2
Tweed
2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 57
Gulfstream · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength30%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.0% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |