3
Atomic Don
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 43
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -36.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |