4
Reproche
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 56
Gulfstream · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength21%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |