Ditched
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 90
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 05/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |