4
Gulfstream Mary D
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 28/03/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 28/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 02/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |