North End Lady
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 93
Gulfstream · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |