4
Mamuka
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 71
Gulfstream · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |