4
Lady Chance
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 73
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
86%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 27/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |