5
My Girl Nina
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 68
Gulfstream · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength93%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 21/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |