1
Golden Valley
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength57%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 1/2 | 97% | 86% | -0.12 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |