Militia
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 81
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 31/07/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 04/09/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 08/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 20/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |