5
My Denysse
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 82
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 9-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/10/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 20/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 16/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |
| 12/07/2026 | 7th | 11/8 | 93% | 25% | -0.68 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |