3
Nifty's Spirit
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 56
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -28.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/02/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/03/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 04/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |