8
Winning Defense
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 78
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Maiden Optional Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength95%
Delivery trend +12.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |