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Ablon

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 70

Haydock · EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

11%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Opened her account in a Kempton novice in February. Respectable handicap debut when fifth of 11 at Newbury on return in July and can have her subsequent Nottingham effort 15 days later excused (lost both front shoes). Solid each-way claims.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 04/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m1y Std 1284/0854 @ Goodwood 02/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f197y Hvy 125 · HIGHER CLASS2/0944 @ Kempton 11/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 137 · HIGHER CLASS11/0244 @ Kempton 25/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 69 · 7f Sta 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 69 par25/024OR 695 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 70 · 1m2f GF 137 · beat its mark02/07/2026 · OR 70 par2/075OR 705 @ Nottingham 18/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 70 · 1m2f50y Goo 134 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 70 par18/075OR 70projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-18Nottingham56th6th0
2026-07-02Newbury55th5th0
2026-02-25Kempton41st0th+1
2026-02-11Kempton42nd1st+1
2025-09-02Goodwood45th4th+1
2025-08-04Lingfield55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/082/0911/0225/022/0718/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -20.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20255th16/116%60%+0.44
02/09/20255th11/142%43%+0.01
11/02/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17
25/02/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
02/07/20265th7/163%60%-0.03
18/07/20266th11/893%0%-0.93