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Condotti

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61

Haydock · EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#3

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

17%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains winless but has shaped well in defeat numerous times, most recently when second of 11 at Chester (10.5f, soft) a fortnight ago, finding only a similarly-well-treated rival too strong from worst of draw. Nudged up 2 lb but it looks a matter of time before he gets off the mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 04/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 70 · 1m2f42y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2025 · OR 70 par4/094OR 704 @ Chester 20/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 69 · 1m2f70y Hvy 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 69 par5 @ Redcar 04/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 67 · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · below its mark04/10/2025 · OR 67 par4/105OR 675 @ Wolverhampton 18/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 64 · 1m1f104y Std 125 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 64 par6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 63 · 1m1f Goo 136 · below its mark29/05/2026 · OR 63 par29/056OR 636 @ Hamilton 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 60 · 1m68y Goo 137 · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 60 · 1m2f Gd 140 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 60 par6/076OR 606 @ Ffos Las 04/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m3f209y Gd 140 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 59 · 1m2f70y Goo 131 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 59 par11/095OR 59projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester52nd2nd0
2026-08-04Ffos Las65th6th−1
2026-07-06Ayr62nd3rd−1
2026-06-10Hamilton63rd4th−1
2026-05-29Carlisle69th10th−1
2025-10-18Wolverhampton54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0918/106/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/09/20257th12/137%54%+0.17
20/09/20256th12/137%0%-0.37
04/10/202511th28/10%0%0.00
18/10/20254th14/126%67%+0.40
29/05/20269th9/153%0%-0.53
10/06/20263rd9/153%80%+0.27
06/07/20262nd5/174%91%+0.17
04/08/20265th13/891%56%-0.36
11/09/20262nd14/126%90%+0.64