6
Dragonflame
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 64
Haydock · EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Kempton | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bath | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Brighton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 8-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 11/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 15/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 30/09/2025 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 08/10/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 23% | -0.24 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |