9
Falcon Nine
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 58
Haydock · EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Musselburgh | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -5.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 90% | +0.85 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 09/09/2026 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |