5
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5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65
Haydock · EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 42y
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Leicester | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Bath | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 7-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 26/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 90% | +0.04 |
| 16/06/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 30% | -0.33 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |