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7

Sweet Kiss

4yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 62

Haydock · EITC Training Series Final Apprentice Handicap · 1m 2f 42y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a 1¼m handicap double off 4 lb lower around this time last year. Has proved as good as ever with consecutive seconds at Redcar recently but hit a flat spot when the pace quickened faced with a slightly better race at Ayr last week. Can bounce back.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 64 · 1m3f15y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 64 par17/054OR 646 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 64 · 1m3f39y Goo 135 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 62 · 1m3f197y GF 138 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 62 par5/066OR 626 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 60 · 1m2f Gd 140 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 59 · 1m2f42y Sta 129 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 59 par25/076OR 596 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m2f Goo 137 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Redcar 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 59 · 1m2f1y Goo 131 · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 59 par22/085OR 595 @ Redcar 09/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m2f1y Goo 133 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par4 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 61 · 1m2f Sft 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 61 par17/094OR 61projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr45th4th+1
2026-09-09Redcar52nd2nd0
2026-08-22Redcar52nd2nd0
2026-08-10Ayr66th7th−1
2026-07-25Newcastle62nd3rd−1
2026-07-06Ayr66th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/056/0722/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/05/20269th25/10%11%+0.11
29/05/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
05/06/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
06/07/20266th7/163%55%-0.09
25/07/20262nd10/147%92%+0.44
10/08/20266th5/174%50%-0.24
22/08/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
09/09/20262nd11/893%88%-0.05
17/09/20265th10/382%33%-0.49