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2yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 77

Haydock · Everton In The Community Nursery · 7f 212y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Knuckled down well when opening his account in a 7f Yarmouth novice in August and he posted another solid effort when second of 6 on nursery debut at Doncaster (1m, good) 2 weeks ago. Compiling a solid record and no reason why he won't give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS30/0623 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS10/0734 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 7f6y GF 13018/0742 @ Yarmouth 02/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 77 · 7f3y GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 77 par2/082OR 773 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 1m Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 77 par10/093OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster32nd1st+1
2026-08-02Yarmouth21st-1th+2
2026-07-18Doncaster42nd2nd0
2026-07-10Ascot33rd2nd+1
2026-06-30Salisbury26th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0610/0718/072/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -11.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/06/20266th16/116%50%+0.34
10/07/20263rd33/10%67%+0.67
18/07/20262nd4/179%89%+0.10
02/08/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
10/09/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06