IvyArcIvyArc
8

March Lilly

2yo Filly · 9-2

Haydock · PMJ Capital EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 212y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Matched debut form, rather than built on that, when last of 5 in maiden at Ayr (7f, good to firm, 7/2) in July. The first pair from that race both won next time, so any positive market vibes need noting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f Goo 12815/0633 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f50y Goo 12827/073projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Ayr35th5th0
2026-06-15Wetherby33rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0627/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 12-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -90.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20263rd8/158%67%+0.09
27/07/20265th7/282%0%-0.82