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3

St Helier

2yo Colt · 9-9

Haydock · Ashlar Construction EBF Novice Stakes · 6f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form to get off the mark in straightforward fashion by 1¾ lengths from Crystal Dark in 7-runner novice at Newcastle (7f, 9/2) 20 days ago. A well-bred sort who is open to further improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 6f Sta 13031/0743 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 7f14y Std 1335/093projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle31st1st0
2026-07-31Newcastle45th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength97%

Delivery trend -3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
05/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24