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8

Ata Rangi

5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 86

Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ground-versatile type who made a successful reappearance over C&D (good). Never landed a blow when beaten 7 lengths in bid to make it 3-3 at this track last time. Now only 1 lb above his winning mark here in May, with good-value claimer back aboard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ York 26/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 80 · 7f192y Goo 135 · beat its mark26/07/2025 · OR 80 par26/074OR 803 @ Haydock 05/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 83 · 6f212y Goo 135 · beat its mark05/09/2025 · OR 83 par2 @ Goodwood 24/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 87 · 1m Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 87 par24/092OR 873 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 87 · 1m Hvy 132 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 87 par4 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 86 · 7f6y Hvy 143 · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 86 par8/114OR 864 @ Haydock 09/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 85 · 6f212y Gd 135 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 89 · 7f GS 134 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 89 par11/063OR 892 @ Ascot 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 88 · 7f GF 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 88 par3 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 87 · 6f212y Sft 137 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 87 par5/093OR 87projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock36th6th0
2026-07-25Ascot28th7th+1
2026-06-11Newbury34th4th0
2026-05-09Haydock41st2nd−1
2025-11-08Doncaster45th6th−1
2025-10-25Doncaster35th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0725/1011/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/07/20252nd9/153%94%+0.42
05/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
24/09/20257th15/261%45%-0.15
25/10/20255th14/126%69%+0.43
08/11/20255th16/116%80%+0.64
09/05/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
11/06/20264th5/174%79%+0.05
25/07/20268th33/10%53%+0.53
05/09/20266th9/276%50%-0.26