5
Great Dream
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 89
Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y
#11
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ffos Las | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Yarmouth | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength43%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 70% | -0.12 |
| 19/09/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 04/10/2025 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 12/06/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 58% | +0.53 |
| 17/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 06/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |