6
Mr Noble
3yo Colt · 9-7 · OR 90
Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
64%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | York | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 89% | -0.08 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 85% | +0.43 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |