11
Scutari
3yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 81
Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-08 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-12-02 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-09-30 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +16.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 02/12/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |