10
Spaceman
3yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 82
Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#4
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-04 | Redcar | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/2025 | 2nd | 16/5 | 83% | 93% | +0.10 |
| 19/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 60% | -0.36 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |