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2

Storm Free

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 93

Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improving 4-y-o. Solid form when off the mark for the year at Southwell in late-July. Did really well to pull the race out of the fire when following up in this grade at Sandown last time. Has good prospects of completing a hat-trick off 4 lb higher, even with a less-than-ideal draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Nottingham 09/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 6f18y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/04/2025 · OR 83 par9/045OR 833 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 83 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 83 par4 @ Kempton 24/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 83 · 7f Sta 135 · beat its mark24/09/2025 · OR 83 par24/094OR 833 @ Leicester 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 85 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 85 par3 @ Newmarket 16/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 90 · 7f Gd 131 · beat its mark16/04/2026 · OR 90 par16/043OR 902 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 19th of 28 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 89 par3 @ Newbury 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 88 · 7f GS 133 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 88 par11/063OR 884 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 86 · 7f14y Std 143 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 89 · 7f GS 134 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 89 par29/083OR 89projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown31st1st0
2026-07-27Southwell41st2nd−1
2026-06-11Newbury36th6th0
2026-05-09Ascot219th18th+1
2026-04-16Newmarket36th6th0
2025-10-14Leicester31st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0414/1011/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
21/08/20253rd6/168%85%+0.16
24/09/20252nd3/184%89%+0.05
14/10/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
16/04/20266th13/266%71%+0.05
09/05/202619th18/15%33%+0.28
11/06/20266th13/266%64%-0.02
27/07/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
29/08/20261st12/137%100%+0.63