U Sure Do
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 82
Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 2 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Chester | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Thirsk | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 14th | 14/1 | 26% | 35% | +0.09 |
| 18/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 22/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 74% | +0.27 |