Yorkshire
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 91
Haydock · Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap · 6f 212y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | York | 2 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Haydock | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ascot | 2 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 26/04/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 19/06/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 81% | +0.81 |
| 26/07/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 11th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 27/06/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.17 |
| 18/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 83% | +0.41 |
| 20/08/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 31% | +0.26 |