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3

Glory Road

3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 88

Haydock · By Eck Its Boddingtons Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bumped into some useful rivals when third all 3 starts in novice/maiden company and showed improved form to make a winning handicap debut at Newcastle (12.5f) in July. Never got competitive in Melrose at York last month but better anticipated dropping into calmer waters.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m75y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS8/1023 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m2f Gd 13315/0534 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f Goo 1309/0644 @ Newcastle 25/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 82 · 1m4f98y Sta 133 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 82 par25/074OR 822 @ York 22/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 88 · 1m5f188y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 88 par22/082OR 88projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22York211th10th+1
2026-07-25Newcastle41st2nd−1
2026-06-09Carlisle42nd3rd−1
2026-05-15Newbury33rd3rd0
2025-10-08Nottingham22nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1015/059/0625/0722/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/10/20252nd7/282%80%-0.02
15/05/20263rd10/382%75%-0.07
09/06/20262nd1/499%91%-0.08
25/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
22/08/202611th18/15%38%+0.32