5
Itica
3yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 78
Haydock · By Eck Its Boddingtons Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength24%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Doncaster | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-01-20 | Southwell | 5 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-11-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Chelmsford City | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength52%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 15% | +0.15 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |