14
Billy No Mates
10yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 55
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hamilton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Redcar | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 77% | +0.24 |
| 19/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 58% | +0.00 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 18/11/2025 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 60% | +0.05 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 19/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 14% | -0.62 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |