Circuit Breaker
6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 68
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ascot | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Lingfield | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-03 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Market Rasen | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 30/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 06/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 03/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 29% | -0.14 |
| 03/04/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 85% | +0.79 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 55% | +0.39 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 70% | -0.06 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |