IvyArcIvyArc
5

Dust Cover

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69

Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Seems much better on all-weather than turf. winning twice at Southwell and once at Kempton since the end of 2025. Shaped as if still in form when fifth of 12 at Kempton (1½m) 44 days ago but others are preferred back on the grass.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength71%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 21/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 1m3f23y Std 131 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 60 par21/116OR 606 @ Southwell 18/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 65 · 1m3f23y Std 137 · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 67 · 1m3f23y Std 130 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 67 par20/015OR 675 @ Kempton 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 69 · 1m2f219y Sta 131 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 69 par4 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 73 · 1m4f104y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 73 par12/044OR 735 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 1m2f219y Sta 132 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 72 · 1m4f Gd 132 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 72 par15/055OR 724 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 1m7f218y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 75 par3 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 74 · 1m3f219y Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 74 par12/083OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-12Kempton35th3rd+2
2026-07-08Kempton44th3rd+1
2026-05-15Newbury55th5th0
2026-05-04Kempton52nd2nd0
2026-04-12Musselburgh414th13th+1
2026-02-04Kempton51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/114/0215/0512/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength43%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/11/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
18/12/20252nd10/1195%92%-0.04
20/01/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
04/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
12/04/202614th11/142%0%-0.42
04/05/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
15/05/20265th11/142%71%+0.29
08/07/20264th13/266%63%-0.03
12/08/20265th16/116%64%+0.48