Joanna Hiffernan
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 58
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Nottingham | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Windsor | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |