8
Kotari
7yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 62
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-23 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-09 | Plumpton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 13-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 29/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 08/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 23/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 09/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 23/03/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 40% | -0.44 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 05/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |