3
Marbuzet
7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 69
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Southwell | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 5 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Thirsk | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | York | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 89% | +0.34 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 15/06/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/09/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |