10
Ottoman
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 61
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#11
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Leicester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Leicester | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 26/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 20% | +0.15 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |