11
Shaffron
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 59
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bath | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Southwell | 6 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Kempton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-09-17 | Yarmouth | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-08-13 | Kempton | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength50%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 11/06/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 100/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 17/09/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 13/10/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 11% | -0.31 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 11% | +0.06 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |