1
Velvet Whisper
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 70
Haydock · Turf Services Handicap · 1m 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ripon | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Musselburgh | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-05 | Musselburgh | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Nottingham | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 6-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 42% | -0.06 |
| 15/09/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 05/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 46% | -0.25 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 36% | -0.37 |
| 18/08/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |