1
Tony Stark
2yo Colt · 8-10
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-06-05 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2015-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 11-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -30.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2015 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 05/06/2015 | 10th | 30/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |