6
J C's Boys
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -2.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 82% | +0.11 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 14/06/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 18% | -0.58 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |