Vintur

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88

Laurel Park · Race 2 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

33%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-02	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-07-12	Colonial Downs	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-05-30	Monmouth Park	BHA97	5th	9th	−3	1.2
2026-05-08	Churchill Downs	?	9th	8th	+1	2.2
2025-10-05	Keeneland	?	9th	2nd	+6	8.3
2025-09-07	Kentucky Downs	?	1st	0th	+1	9.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength56%

Delivery trend -0.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
07/09/2025	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
05/10/2025	9th	13/2	66%	27%	-0.39
08/05/2026	9th	5/1	74%	11%	-0.63
30/05/2026	5th	7/1	63%	43%	-0.20
12/07/2026	7th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
02/08/2026	2nd	5/4	93%	86%	-0.08