Don't Fool With Me
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 71
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-17 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 28/12/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 22% | -0.38 |
| 30/08/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/09/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |