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10

I'm A Sure Thing

6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 82

Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

79%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Keeneland 24/04/2024 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 97 · 1m4f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark24/04/2024 · OR 97 par24/04C5OR 97C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/10/2024 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 88 · 1m3f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/10/2024 · OR 88 parC6 @ Gulfstream 10/01/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 91 · 1m3f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/01/2025 · OR 91 par10/01C6OR 91C6 @ Gulfstream 13/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 91 · 1m4f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/02/2025 · OR 91 parC8 @ Colonial Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 94 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 94 par30/08C8OR 94C7 @ Laurel Park 20/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 1m1f Fm 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 90 parC7 @ Laurel Park 15/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/11/2025 · OR 91 par15/11C7OR 91C6 @ Turfway Park 11/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 95 · 1m2f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/01/2026 · OR 95 parC8 @ Laurel Park 10/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 79 · 1m110y Fm 126 · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 79 par10/04C8OR 79projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-10Laurel Park?1st1st0
2026-01-11Turfway Park?10th8th+2
2025-11-15Laurel Park?2nd1st+1
2025-09-20Laurel Park?1st0th+1
2025-08-30Colonial Downs?5th5th0
2025-02-13Gulfstream?8th6th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0413/0215/1110/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength66%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/04/20246th9/488%38%-0.51
17/10/20246th9/153%29%-0.24
10/01/20253rd14/126%71%+0.45
13/02/20258th10/147%13%-0.35
30/08/20255th5/174%33%-0.40
20/09/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
15/11/20252nd2/189%80%-0.09
11/01/202610th12/137%0%-0.37
10/04/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06